Climate Modeling

Earth’s physical, biological, and chemical systems are complex and interconnected.

Understanding and predicting how climate affects those systems, and additionally, what drives climate change is a monumental task, requiring the tenacity and expertise of a broad network of climate scientists.

Lawrence Livermore, in partnership with other national laboratories and academic collaborators, continues to advance the tools and methodologies needed to accurately predict future climate conditions.

With powerful computers and an ongoing refinement process, LLNL scientists build and improve sophisticated climate models such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that can focus on elements of climate-vulnerable U.S. infrastructure. These models also enable enhanced techniques, such as climate fingerprinting, to clarify both natural and human-related influences affecting Earth’s atmosphere. By comparing and validating research and data over decades of study and using state-of-the-art tools of this era, the Laboratory is bringing into focus the evolution of climate change and its potential effects.

Model Development

Researchers develop climate models that employ Department of Energy supercomputing resources to produce accurate and actionable model results. These high-resolution models help researchers better understand how Earth system processes interact today and how they may evolve in the future.

High-resolution ocean simulation

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Next-generation Earth system prediction

SCREAM simulated cloud structure

Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Modeling the global atmosphere at cloud-resolving scales

Model Evaluation

Scientists compare detailed and rigorous observations from surface, atmosphere, satellite, and oceanographic measurements with outputs from computer models. These results are used to improve the models as well as to search for patterns in climate, and their causes.

Close up view of a graph showing the lines and data clusters.

PCMDI: An Earth System Model Evaluation Project

Advanced methods and tools for climate modeling

Schematic diagram illustrating the approaches, science foci, and tools for THREAD.

Tying in High Resolution E3SM with ARM Data (THREAD)

Constraining cloud and precipitation processes using observational data

Close up of a cloud liquid water path.

Liquid-Phase Cloud Response to Aerosol Perturbation

Understanding warm cloud response to aerosol perturbation

A portion of LLNL's dashboard for intercomparison if impacts-relevant climate data products.

Downscaled Data Evaluation

Assessing impacts-relevant climate data products

Modeling Infrastructure

Global climate data accumulate daily across a range of information systems. Software, tools, and related capabilities are needed to organize the data, facilitate collaboration, and accelerate scientific discovery.

ESGF’s peer-to-peer architecture.

Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

Global repository for Earth system data

Screenshot of atmospheric simulations.

Software and Tools

Integrating novel diagnostic capabilities and data tools